Good week, bad week. Good week, bad week.
Back and forth we go.
The balance sheet was red last weekend, thanks to both UNLV and Wisconsin slipping outside “Cover Town” in the fourth quarter. It’s just the worst way to lose an underdog.
I’ve got three college football plays and three NFL wagers this weekend.
Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (19-20, -2.9 units)
Louisville @ No. 11 Clemson (-10.5, O/U 62)
Clemson has been destroying inferior teams for weeks, and now it faces a Louisville offense that can get up and down the field. The total tells us both teams will tango and I truly believe Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough will be able to take advantage of a very questionable Clemson secondary. The Tigers certainly have their sights set on an ACC Championship appearance down the road, but they better be careful against Jeff Brohm’s feisty squad.
PICK: Louisville (+10.5) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points, or win outright
Duke @ No. 5 Miami (-20, O/U 54.5)
Manny Diaz’s Duke defense meets Miami’s high-octane offense. It’s easy to look at Miami’s box scores and lean “Over,” but Diaz is going to throw a bunch of coverages at Canes QB Cam Ward, and I don’t expect the ACC’s most-talented team to do whatever it wants. It’s much easier to slow a game down than it is to speed one up and let’s be clear — Duke has no chance in a shootout. The Blue Devils are going to do everything in their power to muck this up.
PICK: Under 54.5 points scored by both teams combined
No. 13 Indiana (-7.5, O/U 53) @ Michigan State
Let me start with a disclaimer. I haven’t bet against Indiana one time this season. I love that Hooisers team, their coach and their quarterback … but there’s a time and place for everything. This line is just disrespectful to Michigan State, and I believe Jonathan Smith will have his squad ready. After all, Sparty faced Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan in its last four games. They’re certainly more battle-tested than Indiana and that’s very important to me.
PICK: Michigan State (+7.5) lose by fewer than 7.5 points, or win outright
No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Penn State Big Noon Kickoff
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals (-1, O/U 44.5)
Did you know Bears head coach Matt Eberflus has never won a Sunday road game? That’s pathetic and hysterical at the same time, and while a nugget like that is never enough to place a bet, it doesn’t hurt. Arizona has four losses this season, all of them against playoff teams. The Cardinals fell to the Bills, Commanders and Lions — all first-place teams — and a 6-2 Packers team. Arizona’s coaching edge is massive and Chicago’s offensive line is a problem.
PICK: Cardinals (-1) to win by more than 1 point
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, O/U 46.5)
The Broncos’ side took some money midweek after reports surfaced about MVP Lamar Jackson missing practice and the market got as low as Ravens -7.5. Well, look at the line now. It’s funny because when I emailed these picks Friday morning, the line was Baltimore -8. Now it’s -9.5. I would still lay anything under 10 because I’m just not buying Denver. Give ‘em credit for winning a bunch of games with a rookie quarterback, but this is a big step up in competition.
PICK: Ravens (-9.5) to win by more than 9.5 points
PICK: Ravens -5.5 1st Half
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
