Will Caleb Williams have best rookie debut? Impact players? QBs under pressure?

As the NFL’s 105th season commences, history reminds us that almost anything is possible. Just consider that for 34 straight seasons, at least four teams have made the playoffs after not making it the year before. In 20 of the past 21 seasons, at least two teams have won their divisions the season after missing the playoffs. And in 19 of the past 21 seasons, at least one team has gone from worst to first in its division.

So does that mean some surprise team will stop the Kansas City Chiefs from three-peating? Let’s take it one step at a time, starting with the FOX Sports NFL experts answering five burning questions heading into Week 1.

What would success look like this season for the three rookie quarterbacks — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix — making their NFL debuts this weekend?

Greg Auman: C.J. Stroud set the bar unfairly high for a rookie last season. If Williams, Daniels or Nix can lead his team to the playoffs, let alone a playoff win, it’ll be one of the better stories of the season. Stroud had 23 touchdowns against five interceptions as a rookie. None of this year’s starting trio is likely to do that. If any of them throw for 20-plus touchdowns with single-digit interceptions, call it a success.

For this week, we’ll set the bar low. Consider that 32 first-round picks have made their first career start in the past 10 years, and just six of them have thrown multiple touchdowns and avoided multiple interceptions in their debut. That’s less than 20%. Now, the six aren’t exactly an endorsement for “this proves you’ll be an NFL superstar.” The list includes Zach Wilson in 2021, Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones in 2019, Sam Darnold in 2018, Carson Wentz in 2016 and Marcus Mariota in 2014. Only half of them are still starting quarterbacks in 2024.

For this week, how about just win? First-round picks in their first career starts have lost 10 straight games. That’s Anthony Richardson, Stroud, Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Wilson. Ten in a row! The last first-rounder to win his first NFL start was Tua Tagovailoa in November 2020. The last one to win in Week 1? Darnold, six full years ago. And even he threw a pick-six on his first NFL pass. Good luck, rookies.

Henry McKenna: Each rookie faces different expectations. But largely, I’m with Greg: How about just win?

Caleb Williams might have a top-10 offensive line and a top-10 group of skill players after a busy offseason by Bears GM Ryan Poles. With that in mind, Williams & Co. should beat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. I think people are expecting Williams to show some flashes of Patrick Mahomes. We know Williams will grow into a flashy game. But for now, I’d like him to have a zero-turnover game — just to show he can control an NFL game.

Jayden Daniels has a worse supporting cast and a tougher matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished in the top 10 in sacks last season. The Washington Commanders are going to struggle with pass protection all season — and Week 1 will be no exception. I want to see Daniels operate comfortably in the pocket, like he did in college. I want to see him escape the pocket when it collapses, like he did in college. And unlike what he did in college, I want to see Daniels avoid getting hit — by sliding, throwing the ball away and using the sideline.

As for Bo Nix, he looked extremely competent in preseason. But after the Broncos‘ brutal 2023 season, we might simply have to hope that Nix finishes this debut with three interceptions or fewer against the Seahawks in Seattle. Nix won’t be facing those vanilla coverages he saw during the preseason. It’s about to get faster and far, far more complicated. I know Sean Payton loves this kid, but I’m just hoping to see Nix keep his touchdown-to-turnover ratio on the positive (and, as mentioned, get a win).

Which veteran QB enters the season under the most pressure and why: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold? 

McKenna: I’m taking Daniel Jones, because I’m basically operating under the assumption that Russ is cooked. He’s a placeholder until Justin Fields is ready. Jones, however, still has a chance. Brian Daboll is still a brilliant offensive mind. The Giants still have an elite left tackle in Andrew Thomas (when/if he’s healthy), and they drafted a receiver, Malik Nabers, who should instantly step in as a bona-fide No. 1. Even so, I’m not sure they’ve set up Jones for success, even in his make-or-break year. On the plus side, if Jones excels, he can point to what he’s done well despite adverse circumstances. It’s just tough to see things going well for him this season.

Ralph Vacchiano: Well, I just wrote about how Daniel Jones’ $160 million contract is a “bargain” so I can’t turn the heat up on him now, can I? Henry is right that Jones is facing a make-or-break year. I do think he’s set up for success, though — at least more so than he has been in the past. But I’m picking Russell Wilson because he’s 35 — eight years older than Jones — and he’s coming off three seasons that have ranged from mediocre to bad. His last year at a top level was 2020. He somehow got a lifeline from the Steelers, but if he doesn’t do it now, nobody’s going to think he’s got any kind of future. At least Jones has youth on his side. 

There’s also one other big pressure point with Wilson: The presence of Justin Fields on the Steelers’ roster. Jones probably has a season to prove himself in New York. Wilson, taking over a team that went 10-7 with Kenny Pickett last season, may only have a few weeks. The clock is ticking fast on his NFL career.

What’s the best matchup this Sunday and why?

Eric D. Williams: Cowboys at Browns. Dak Prescott gets his first opportunity to show he’s worth $60 million annually playing against one of the best defenses in the league in America’s Game of the Week on FOX (4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday).

Prescott was an MVP finalist last season before he and the Cowboys laid an egg in an embarrassing home playoff loss against the Green Bay Packers. He led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes, ranked second with a 105.9 rating and third with 4,516 pass yards. Now, as he enters the final year of his contract, Prescott gets a chance to showcase himself to the league, starting with the Browns. 

While the offseason in Dallas was dominated by contract talk involving CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons and Prescott, the Cowboys can now turn their focus to chasing another NFC East division title. If they win it, they would become the first team to repeat as division champs since the Philadelphia Eagles in 2003-04.

For Cleveland, $230 million quarterback Deshaun Watson also has something to prove — that he can stay healthy and finally provide the team with a respectable return on its investment. Watson has played just 12 games in two years. Last year, Joe Flacco came off his couch to lead Cleveland to the postseason in place of an injured Watson. Can Watson stay healthy and do the same for the Browns in 2024?

Ben Arthur: The Texans–Colts Week 18 showdown last season, with the AFC South on the line, was a thriller. I’m expecting their Week 1 matchup to bring even more excitement. Beyond the added intensity of this being a division matchup, smack talk was traded early in the offseason between Houston’s C.J. Stroud and Indianapolis’ Zaire Franklin, stoking the flames of the rivalry.

Many league observers assume the Texans will run away with the AFC South, but the Colts look like the team with the most upside to challenge them — and make the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Superstar running back Jonathan Taylor returns at full strength (he had 188 rushing yards on 6.2 yards per carry in the Week 18 showdown last season) and Anthony Richardson is fully healthy. 

And remember, Stroud didn’t beat Richardson as a rookie. In their lone matchup, Week 2 of last season in Houston, the Colts won 31-20 — with Richardson playing just 32 snaps.

Which player who switched teams in the offseason will make the biggest impact this year?

Arthur: Derrick Henry to the Ravens. 

Look, I get it: Baltimore already had the league’s top rushing offense last year. But Henry’s addition adds a whole new wrinkle to it, one that will thrust opposing defenses into constant conflict. Defending read options, RPOs, play-action and draws will make things significantly more difficult for opponents. 

Despite being 30, Henry is still playing at a high level. He’s led the NFL in carries back-to-back seasons. With the Titans last season, he had more than 1,100 rushing yards playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. 

The Lamar Jackson-Henry tandem has the potential to become one of the most lethal rushing attacks ever — and get Jackson, a two-time league MVP, to his first Super Bowl.

Williams: Yes, the Atlanta Falcons caused some head-scratching around the league by selecting Michael Penix Jr. No. 8 overall in this year’s draft after signing Kirk Cousins in free agency. Cousins, however, makes Atlanta the frontrunner to win the NFC South this year.

New head coach Raheem Morris understands the value of a veteran signal-caller from his time with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay with the Los Angeles Rams. And in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, the Falcons have someone at the controls who will specifically cater the scheme to Cousins’ skill set.

Yes, there are concerns about Cousins staying healthy as he returns from an Achilles tendon tear, which ended his 2023 season and his time with the Minnesota Vikings. But even at age 36, Cousins remains one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league. And with the amount of talent Atlanta has on offense with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London, all Cousins must do is be a point guard and get the ball to his playmakers on time and in space.

McKenna: Stefon Diggs is going to help the Texans meet high expectations. Everyone is expecting this Houston offense to lead the team into the postseason. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is expected to be an MVP candidate. If not for Diggs, I’d expect the Texans to disappoint. But because Houston added one of the NFL’s top receivers, I genuinely believe the Texans can avoid regression. 

Diggs helped make Josh Allen into the quarterback he is today. Something similar will happen in Houston, where Stroud managed to deliver one of the best statistical seasons by a rookie QB in NFL history. And Diggs probably won’t get the credit he deserves — because the Texans, if they are as successful as everyone expects, will merely meet the hype. But that’s so, so difficult in the NFL. Just ask the Eagles last year.

Which new NFL head coach will have the best debut and which one will want a do-over by Sunday night?

Vacchiano: The hiring of Mike Macdonald in Seattle flew a bit under the radar in the offseason, but he was an in-demand assistant who is taking over a pretty good team. The Seahawks have a lot of strong weapons on offense and a rebuilt defense and just missed the playoffs a year ago. Even better, they open at home against the Denver Broncos, who are a mess of a team starting a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. Macdonald is perfectly set up for some Week 1 success. 

The same can’t be said of Jerod Mayo, who will make his Patriots debut in Bill Belichick’s shadow on the road against a Bengals team that gets quarterback Joe Burrow back. Mayo will be good for New England eventually, but the team is in the early stages of a rebuilding project. It’s going to be a very long year for Mayo and the Patriots, and if the Bengals are the AFC power many think they are, Mayo’s debut is going to really hurt.

Williams: It’s Raiders week for the Los Angeles Chargers, which means an intense focus on beating their hated AFC West rivals — and trying to forget last season’s humbling 63-21 loss to Las Vegas that led to the firing of head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco.

New head coach Jim Harbaugh was brought in to build a sustainable winning culture for the Bolts. He has created clarity in the organization and added credibility because of his track record of winning wherever he goes.

[READ MORE: Can Jim Harbaugh turn the Chargers into winners? He’s done it everywhere else]

Telesco, now the Raiders’ general manager, faces his former team for the first time. He had made interim coach Antonio Pierce full-time, signed veteran quarterback Gardner Minshew and installed a new RB1 in Zamir White. Even with the improvements, the Raiders may have to rely on a talented defense led by Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby.

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These insights were provided by:

NFL reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFL reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
NFL reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFL reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFL reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)

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